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Thread: U.S. 2014/2016 Election Thread: The Man in the High Chair

  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourFavoriteUser View Post
    It's entirely possible that Bridgeghazi could derail his governorship and keep him from running altogether. If things get worse for Christie, it's entirely possible the legislature impeaches him or he ends up being recalled. This is all hypothetical, of course, but to say this scandal hasn't significantly hurt Christie's chances in 2016 is simply naive.
    I think if things continue as they are right now: ie a staffer was responsible. Then it can clearly run out of steam by 2016, especially if their opponents use it in the primaries like Obama and Reverend Wright in the 2008 primary. I mean does anyone honestly believe the GOP opponents of 2015/2016 wont attack Christie over the Bridge Scandal? Or that Christie will be ready for it? By the time the Democratic nominee gets around to it, there is a very real chance the public will be like "Really? This again? After we just spent half a year hearing about this?"

    Edit: Also glad no one is choosing Wendy Davis to win the Texas Governorship, her campaign is collapsing.
    Last edited by BigLutz; 16th April 2014 at 1:38 AM.

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    Without a doubt, Hilary is by and far the favorite for the Democratic nomination, barring the meteoric rise of another incredibly charismatic upstart who can capture the voters' hearts. At the moment, I see Jeb Bush winning the nomination, although the Tea Party has to be pushed back. For Jeb Bush, well I wonder how much that last name is going to affect his chances. I see a second Clinton winning over a third Bush.

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    Okay, first you say:

    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    Do you honestly think people will care about it in 2016? Especially if it is used in the primary season and becomes a non topic by the time the election rolls around?

    But then you say:

    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    Kind of like Obama being connected to a terrorist and a rabid preacher? Yeah no way that guy could be elected.
    ...contradicting your own words about how long an opposing party can care about something. In the same post.


    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    Edit: Also glad no one is choosing Wendy Davis to win the Texas Governorship, her campaign is collapsing.
    Why? Because of the claims she was an unfit mother, which her children are publically debunking? Her detractors are trying to twist her words. When a woman is "separated" from her husband, she's far closer to "divorced" than she is to "happily married". You're just using the "exact words" argument again.

    Meanwhile, her opponent is using Ted Nugent, of all people to promote him, and refuses to condemn his clearly racist comment against the President.
    Last edited by Maedar; 16th April 2014 at 1:51 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    Edit: Also glad no one is choosing Wendy Davis to win the Texas Governorship, her campaign is collapsing.
    Yeah, that's one of the most overrated races this cycle. Glad the media seems to have given up on gushing about it so we can focus on races that are actually going to be competitive
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  5. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    Okay, first you say:

    But then you say:

    ...contradicting your own words about how long an opposing party can care about something. In the same post.
    Umm how was that a contradiction? The Reverend Wright and Bill Ayres stuff had largely been played out before McCain even took his first swing at Obama, so much so McCain barely touched it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    Why? Because of the claims she was an unfit mother, which her children are publically debunking? Her detractors are trying to twist her words. When a woman is "separated" from her husband, she's far closer to "divorced" than she is to "happily married". You're just using the "exact words" argument again.

    Meanwhile, her opponent is using Ted Nugent, of all people to promote him, and refuses to condemn his clearly racist comment against the President.
    Lets see she used a man for his money, slept around on him, and then dumped him when his money was no longer useful. She is running a awful media campaign, so bad the press in Texas say they have never seen anything like it. She is embroiled in some very bad scanda;s involving her lawfirm and TEXDOT, and she is not even winning the Women vote right now.
    Last edited by BigLutz; 16th April 2014 at 1:55 AM.

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    To answer your question, yes, I think it will matter to people. You know why?

    During the campaign, every time someone is stuck in a traffic jam, already upset because he's late, and hears a campaign commercial on his car radio, I do believe it will come to mind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    To answer your question, yes, I think it will matter to people. You know why?

    During the campaign, every time someone is stuck in a traffic jam, already upset because he's late, and hears a campaign commercial on his car radio, I do believe it will come to mind.
    It depends if candidates use that in commercials, again if it is played out in the primary season, such commercials will start testing poorly with audiences by general election time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post

    Why? Because of the claims she was an unfit mother, which her children are publically debunking? Her detractors are trying to twist her words. When a woman is "separated" from her husband, she's far closer to "divorced" than she is to "happily married". You're just using the "exact words" argument again.

    Meanwhile, her opponent is using Ted Nugent, of all people to promote him, and refuses to condemn his clearly racist comment against the President.
    Have you looked at any poll in this race? Or Wendy Davis's approval? Davis is toast.
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourFavoriteUser View Post
    Have you looked at any poll in this race? Or Wendy Davis's approval? Davis is toast.
    I don't expect her to win. The sky will fall before she does.

    The Texas House broke the rules to stop her filibuster and altered the clock to pass the bill, meaning they did so illegally. Only "tradition" made it valid and prevented a criminal charge against those responsible.

    Sadly, however, her opponent is as bad as the current one, and her detractors are exaggerating the situation, telling blatant lies about an honest woman who actually wants what's best for people.

    But I do admire her for standing up to them. As I said in another post, that's how Susan B. Anthony started, and despite being a criminal then, not an unfavorite, she was vindicated by history.
    Last edited by Maedar; 16th April 2014 at 2:10 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    I don't expect her to win. The sky will fall before she does.

    The Texas House broke the rules to stop her filibuster and altered the clock to pass the bill, meaning they did so illegally. Only "tradition" made it valid and prevented a criminal charge against those responsible.

    Sadly, however, her opponent is as bad as the current one, and her detractors are exaggerating the situation, telling blatant lies about an honest woman who actually wants what's best for people.
    You mean wanted the best for her clients

    http://www.dallasnews.com/news/polit...ed-clients.ece

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    Very interesting. Davis is breaking a promise regarding her law career?

    Chief Justice Roberts is doing the same thing.

    http://videos.huffingtonpost.com/joh...liar-518181163

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    Very interesting. Davis is breaking a promise regarding her law career?

    Chief Justice Roberts is doing the same thing.

    http://videos.huffingtonpost.com/joh...liar-518181163
    Yeahhh no where close, Roberts said he had respect for precedent, that does not mean he will defer to it every time. Wendy Davis basically voted for whatever way her clients wished.

    Still waiting for your explanation in what Rand Paul said is racist.

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    Lutz, let me tell you something, searching for an honest politician could well be a lifelong quest that you'll never complete. Going to criticize Davis for lying? Right. I can fill a book with Governor Perry's lies.

    In fact:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalit...ng/pants-fire/

    Interesting, isn't it?

    Here's Davis' entire profile on Politifact:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalities/wendy-davis/

    Not one Pants On Fire yet. Not even one marked False.


    Anyway, I know of only one politician in the modern era who was completely honest. Remember this?

    "Mr. Reagan will raise taxes, and so will I. He won't tell you. I just did."
    Walter Mondale was telling the COMPLETE truth when he said that, and what was his reward for his honesty? He lost in a landslide.

    "Politics is the art of lying", as Florentine philosopher Niccolň Machiavelli said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    Lutz, let me tell you something, searching for an honest politician could well be a lifelong quest that you'll never complete. Going to criticize Davis for lying? Right. I can fill a book with Governor Perry's lies.

    In fact:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalit...ng/pants-fire/

    Interesting, isn't it?

    Here's Davis' entire profile on Politifact:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalities/wendy-davis/

    Not one Pants On Fire yet. Not even one marked False
    A politician nobody knew about before a year ago and only had five statements judged has a better record on politifact than a governor who served for over a decade and even mounted a presidential campaign? Amazing!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    Lutz, let me tell you something, searching for an honest politician could well be a lifelong quest that you'll never complete. Going to criticize Davis for lying? Right. I can fill a book with Governor Perry's lies.

    In fact:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalit...ng/pants-fire/

    Interesting, isn't it?

    Here's Davis' entire profile on Politifact:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalities/wendy-davis/

    Not one Pants On Fire yet. Not even one marked False.
    And that makes up for corruption? How about using a husband to get ahead in life and then dumping him with the kids when she was done?

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    He was her second husband, they have a special type of joint custody, and if you must know her complete life story, why don't you read it here.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendy_Davis_(politician)

    You're only believing what the conservative blogs tell you, Lutz.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    He was her second husband, they have a special type of joint custody, and if you must know her complete life story, why don't you read it here.
    As a Texan I am well versed with her life story, I am also versed in how she left her second husband and dumped him with the kids, one of which isn't even his after he college bills were paid.

    Again I ask, what did Rand Paul say that was so racist?

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    This:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4994953.html

    Bad choice of words, Rand. In fact, bad choice of topic.

    And by the way...

    You realize he is one of the best to describe his plan, and his knowledge and smarts have even been acknowledged by Obama.
    Why? Name one thing he's actually done with his "knowledge and smarts" that everyone claims he has.
    Last edited by Maedar; 16th April 2014 at 2:56 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    This:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4994953.html

    Bad choice of words, Rand. In fact, bad choice of topic.
    Umm what is racist about that again?

    ""The first African-American president ought to be a little more conscious of the fact of what has happened with the abuses of domestic spying," Paul told Times reporter Jeremy Peters. "Martin Luther King was spied upon, civil rights leaders were spied upon, Muhammad Ali was spied upon, antiwar protesters were spied upon.""

    He is right, blacks in the civil rights movement were heavily spied upon by the Kennedy and Johnson administration, you would think the first African American President would take the lessons of the Civil Rights era to show how dangerous it is to spy on fellow Americans. Especially since he likes to talk about that era so much.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    Why? Name one thing he's actually done with his "knowledge and smarts" that everyone claims he has.
    His ability to understand economic issues and craft plans to take care of them, you may not agree with his plans, but that does not mean he is not incredibly smart.
    Last edited by BigLutz; 16th April 2014 at 3:01 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    This:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4994953.html

    Bad choice of words, Rand. In fact, bad choice of topic.
    He's not wrong. The gov't has spied on citizens based on race. Heck it even imprisoned them based on race at one point.
    Stand by for political rant that no one else really cares about.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    This:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4994953.html

    Bad choice of words, Rand. In fact, bad choice of topic.
    There's nothing racist about that
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    This:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4994953.html

    Bad choice of words, Rand. In fact, bad choice of topic.
    Can you show me the problem here? Hes simply speaking out against the NSA. Nothing wrong with that.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cloneblazer12 View Post
    Can you show me the problem here? Hes simply speaking out against the NSA. Nothing wrong with that.
    yeah if this was literally any other topic i'd be criticizing him, but as it stands...

    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    His ability to understand economic issues and craft plans to take care of them, you may not agree with his plans, but that does not mean he is not incredibly smart.
    this would be a valid point if Ryan's plans actually appreciably took care of any problems instead of exacerbating them, like how it redirects government spending that lessens the effects of wealth inequality into the military-industrial complex (where it's significantly less efficient at everything in general), or how it slashes discretionary spending based on the outdated gold-standard-era belief that deficits matter more than restoring the economy to its full-employment capacity (or near enough to it that labor markets are substantially healthier than they are now)

    or the fact that it overturns the cost-cutting measures in the ACA with no real indication of how to replace them beyond voucherizing medicare, in spite of the fact that health care expenditures by non-elderly people are the single biggest driver of the debt projections he's using to justify his budgets

    his budget'll possibly get him through the GOP primaries, but nowhere near a general election win.
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    So I created a chart on my predictions for the 2014 governor and senate races, and I know it may be early, but I also have my ridiculously early 2016 and 2014 predictions.

    Senate Predictions
    Governor Predictions

    Tossup means I think both sides have an even chance of winning, lean means I think it can go either way, but one side has a slight advantage, likely means one side has a clear advantage, but an upset is possible, and safe means one side is guaranteed a victory. I'm counting the two independent senators as Democrats. Underlined means that the election already happened and I was right. Also, I accidentally left off the 2014 Oregon Senate Race. That should be Safe D. Also, I accidentally placed the Texas governor's race in Likely R, should be Safe

    Most of these are pretty obvious, but I'll explain of few of my more unusual choices:

    2014 Mississippi Senate (Likely R): Mississippi is certainly a very conservative state and Thad Cochran is extremely popular, so why do I have this as competitive? Cochran is very vulnerable to a primary challenge from Chris McDaniel, and the two of them are neck and neck. McDaniel is a far-right, controversial, neo-confederate candidate, and could potentially turn out to be the Todd Akin of this race. Additionally, the Democrats have a very strong candidate in Childers. Childers vs. Cochran would be Safe R, while McDaniel vs. Childers is Lean R.
    2014 Alaska Senate Race (Lean D): Most people have this race as a tossup, but I think that Begich has a better than even chance of winning for a couple of reasons. Of all the red-state democrats running for reelection this year, Begich has clearly run the best campaign and has had a small lead in polling. If only one Red-state democrat survives 2014, it'd be Begich.
    2014 Virginia Senate Race (Safe D): Virginia may be a swing state, but Warner is one of the most popular senators in the country, and despite the media's obsession with the race, there's no indication suggesting that he's at all vulnerable.
    2014 New Hampshire Senate Race (Safe D): This is by far the most overrated race of this cycle. No, Scott Brown does not have a chance of going back to the senate. A Massachusetts senator with a -10 approval rating is not going to be an incumbent with a +15 approval rating who's actually from New Hampshire. Sorry media, but there's no chance for Scott Brown here.
    2016 Utah Senate Race (Likely R): After his role in shutting down the government, Lee's approval rating collapsed. He's probably more vulnerable to a primary from a moderate Republican than he is from a Democrat (which would be poetic justice, because primarying a more moderate Republican was how he got into the Senate in the first place), but I'll keep this as Likely R for now.
    2016 Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri Senate Races (Likely R): These three states have one thing in common: they have popular Democratic governor's whose terms expire by 2016. If any of these governors were to make a run, they could make these races competitive
    2014 Hawaii Governor Race (Likely D): Neil Abercrombie has terrible approval ratings, is facing a tough primary, and polling seems to indicate that he's vulnerable. Hawaii is notoriously difficult to poll, making this a hard prediction, so I just picked the safest option and made this Likely D, even if he is running in the most liberal state in the country.
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    Pretty good listing. In regards to my home state, Louisiana i think the governor's race should be moved over to safely Republican. The Democratic Party continues to weaken in the state despite Jindal's antics. At the moment the primary candidates are Jay Dardenne (Lt. Gov.) and David Vitter (disgusting). The democratic pool is fairly limited, as it has been the past few election cycles. I do agree with your prediction as well. Although i'd like to see Mary Landrieu unseated, she is renowned across the state for her work with the oil companies, which has recently led to more wealthier supporters on the Republican side to support her. Bill Cassidy is a worthy challenger though, having never lost a race in his political career, but i still see Landrieu squeaking by. Probably will come down to turnout of New Orleans / Baton Rouge like most of the close elections do.

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