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Thread: U.S. Politics 2017: So much for the tolerant SPPf

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by KantoPkmnMaster View Post
    Pretty good listing. In regards to my home state, Louisiana i think the governor's race should be moved over to safely Republican. The Democratic Party continues to weaken in the state despite Jindal's antics. At the moment the primary candidates are Jay Dardenne (Lt. Gov.) and David Vitter (disgusting). The democratic pool is fairly limited, as it has been the past few election cycles.
    My Likely R rating is based almost entirely on whether New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu run. I could see a Landrieu/Vitter race becoming extremely close, and Jindal's lousy approval ratings aren't going to be very helpful to the GOP.
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    If there's anything that would get conservatives angry at Rand Paul, it's his foreign policy views.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5155883.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver Soul View Post
    If there's anything that would get conservatives angry at Rand Paul, it's his foreign policy views.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5155883.html
    Speaking of conservatives lashing out at Rand Paul...

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewir...ampaign=buffer

    Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who has made it clear he's no fan of Sen. Rand Paul's (R-KY) foreign policy views, said Wednesday that a hypothetical Paul presidency would be "disastrous."

    Appearing on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," King was asked whether he would be comfortable with Paul as commander-in-chief.

    “No I wouldn’t. I think his views would be disastrous," King said. "I think he appeals to the lowest common denominator."

    The New York Republican said Paul represents an "isolationist wing from the 1930s" and is bringing debate on national security to a "hysterical level."
    Why is it that anyone who doesn't think the United States should be at war with every country in the world an isolationist?
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  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver Soul View Post
    If there's anything that would get conservatives angry at Rand Paul, it's his foreign policy views.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5155883.html
    I'm not a Rand Paul fan because of his association with the Tea Party faction, but if you want to knock him, you might want to find something from a site that's somewhat credible. Huffington Post is a joke.

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    I can understand that we do not need a John McCain foreign policy and invade every nation that Russia attacks but as Obama found out with his first daily briefing and I would hope Rand Paul would realize with his if he wins: there are some terrible people in this world that will cause problems for us and other nations if America does not have some sort of military power to swing

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    There's talk that Kathleen Sebelius might run for Senate

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/17/us...thecaucus&_r=2

    Several Democrats said this week that Ms. Sebelius had been mentioned with growing frequency as someone who could wage a serious challenge to Mr. Roberts, 77, who is running for a fourth term and is considered vulnerable. One person who spoke directly to Ms. Sebelius said that she was thinking about it, but added that it was too soon to say how seriously she was taking the idea.

    It was only last week, after all, that Ms. Sebelius, 65, said that she would step down from her cabinet job.

    Even if Ms. Sebelius had not presided over the Department of Health and Human Services at a time of turmoil and self-inflicted distress — and while carrying out a law that inspires such anger on the right — her candidacy would be a tough sell in Kansas. Democrats have not held a Senate seat in the state since 1939. And even before the president’s popularity started to take a steep slide last year, he fared especially poorly in Kansas, winning only 38 percent of the vote there in 2012.
    Yeah, there's no chance of a Sebelius victory here. Sebelius is toxic right now, and Kansas is about as deep red as it gets. If she does run, it'd probably end up looking like New Hampshire: A safe incumbent running against a deeply flawed but well-known opponent who the media falls in love with and pretends has a chance.
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    Quote Originally Posted by KantoPkmnMaster View Post
    I'm not a Rand Paul fan because of his association with the Tea Party faction, but if you want to knock him, you might want to find something from a site that's somewhat credible. Huffington Post is a joke.
    There's a reason why Ron Paul was practically shelved by the GOP and the media itself in the 2012 elections you know.

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    Never said there wasn't, but if you wanted to be taken seriously you might want to use a less polarizing source.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KantoPkmnMaster View Post
    Never said there wasn't, but if you wanted to be taken seriously you might want to use a less polarizing source.
    Fine then. Then for those who are still opposing ACA I'm afraid I got some BAD NEWZ! As Gallup reports about the uninsured rate dropping in states that accepted the ACA.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/168539/un...ealth-law.aspx

    Not to mention that the Premiums in the ACA are LOWER than the federal government expected as the CBO reported.

    http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil..._Estimates.pdf
    Last edited by Silver Soul; 16th April 2014 at 6:41 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver Soul View Post
    Fine then. Then for those who are still opposing ACA I'm afraid I got some BAD NEWZ! As Gallup reports about the uninsured rate dropping in states that accepted the ACA.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/168539/un...ealth-law.aspx

    Not to mention that the Premiums in the ACA are LOWER than the federal government expected as the CBO reported.

    http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil..._Estimates.pdf
    You do relize the reason the CBO reported that is because they expected more choices and benefits available, with fewer choices and benefits now available to customers the premiums are lower.... Until this fall when the 2015 rates come out

    Edit

    A crucial factor in the current revision was an analysis of the characteristics of plans offered through the exchanges in 2014. Previously, CBO and JTC had expected that those plans’ characteristics would closely resemble the characteristics of employment-based plans throughout the projection period. However, the plans being offered through the exchanges this year appear to have, in general, lower payment rates for providers, narrower networks of providers, and tighter management of their subscribers’ use of health care than employment-based plans do. …

    The lower exchange premiums and revisions to the other characteristics of insurance plans that are incorporated into CBO and JCT’s current estimates have small effects on the agencies’ projections of exchange enrollment. Although lower premiums will tend to increase enrollment, narrower networks and more tightly managed benefits will tend to reduce the attractiveness of plans and thereby decrease enrollment. The net effect on projected enrollment in the exchanges is small.
    http://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/c..._Estimates.pdf
    Last edited by BigLutz; 16th April 2014 at 9:27 PM.

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    In the Hawaii Democratic primary, possibly the most competitive in the country, incumbent Brian Schatz leads in fundraising over his opponent, Colleen Hanabusa

    http://www.staradvertiser.com/s?acti...1&id=255453741

    While I originally thought this primary could go either way, I think that Schatz's fundraising advantage and Obama's endorsement give him the advantage. Thank goodness, Schatz is one of the best Senators we have, and I don't want to replace him with a DLC third-wayer.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    You do relize the reason the CBO reported that is because they expected more choices available, with fewer choices now available to customers the premiums are lower.... Until this fall when the 2015 rates come out

    http://hotair.com/archives/2014/04/1...ected-because/
    And I was told to be taken seriously by posting from less polarizing sources. Fox News was spinning over people having a 2nd job to keep health care can volunteer to quit and keep their plan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver Soul View Post
    And I was told to be taken seriously by posting from less polarizing sources. Fox News was spinning over people having a 2nd job to keep health care can volunteer to quit and keep their plan.
    I am sure that is true for some people as they are getting the same healthcare plan they used to have just more expensive. Mind you also a plan with less benefits means more out of pocket cost

    BTW only reason I used hot air is because I am on my iPhone and needed ease of use, the link will change to the .PSD file and relevant quotes when I get ahold of a computer
    Last edited by BigLutz; 16th April 2014 at 7:33 PM.

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    Idaho Congressman Mike Simpson, who's facing a tough primary from the right, receives a powerful endorsement

    http://www.politico.com/story/2014/0...09.html?hp=r17

    Mitt Romney appears in a U.S. Chamber of Commerce television ad for Idaho GOP Rep. Mike Simpson that is set to start airing Wednesday.

    Romney’s cameo is a boost to Simpson as he fights May 20 primary challenger Bryan Smith.

    Romney won the district by 31 points in the 2012 presidential contest, according to the Cook Political Report.

    “The stakes are very high in this election because Washington spending is out of control,” Romney says in the 30-second ad. “You can take it from me. The conservative choice for Congress is Mike Simpson. I know because I’ve seen him in action. Mike is fighting hard every day to cut Washington’s wasteful spending, to stop junk lawsuits and to fight against Obamacare. We are going to win this battle. I hope you’ll join me and strongly support Mike Simpson for Congress.”
    Meanwhile, Democrats are targeting 30 House Republicans on immigration, in a last ditch effort to pass the Gang of 8 bill through the House.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2014/0...03.html?hp=l18

    The new pressure tactic includes a memo distributed to those 30 districts held by Republicans who have expressed public support for some sort of immigration reform, many of them backing a pathway to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants in the United States.

    Democrats hope the document — which highlights statements made by those Republicans in favor of reform, as well as data showing the district-specific economic impact of an overhaul — generates local coverage of GOP lawmakers whose party in the House has so far stalled bringing reform to the floor. The memo, which calls on Republicans to endorse a Democratic-led tactic to force a vote onreform, is also available in Spanish and Mandarin.

    “We’ve waited for them to put something forward,” Rep. Joe Garcia (D-Fla.) said of House Republicans on a conference call with reporters on Tuesday. He called the latest Democratic tactic their “last effort” to do reform legislatively.
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourFavoriteUser View Post
    Meanwhile, Democrats are targeting 30 House Republicans on immigration, in a last ditch effort to pass the Gang of 8 bill through the House.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2014/0...03.html?hp=l18
    I don't know to get immigration passed there needs to be significant border improvements, and I am talking about everything just shy of landmines. It is useless to pass reform if the border remains open as the problem will only return a decade or two

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    Quote Originally Posted by YourFavoriteUser View Post
    So I created a chart on my predictions for the 2014 governor and senate races, and I know it may be early, but I also have my ridiculously early 2016 and 2014 predictions.

    Senate Predictions
    Governor Predictions

    Tossup means I think both sides have an even chance of winning, lean means I think it can go either way, but one side has a slight advantage, likely means one side has a clear advantage, but an upset is possible, and safe means one side is guaranteed a victory. I'm counting the two independent senators as Democrats. Underlined means that the election already happened and I was right. Also, I accidentally left off the 2014 Oregon Senate Race. That should be Safe D. Also, I accidentally placed the Texas governor's race in Likely R, should be Safe.
    w/r/t governor predictions, based on what i'm seeing in polling and on the ground, right now i'd throw ohio into tossup - kasich legitimately hasn't hit 45% against fitzgerald since the middle of last year and the undecideds in every poll are dem-leaning demographic groups. (ixnay what i said about SC, i completely forgot how close it was in 2010)

    montana senate is almost certainly going to be closer than west virginia.
    Last edited by John Madden; 16th April 2014 at 11:13 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Madden View Post
    w/r/t governor predictions, based on what i'm seeing in polling and on the ground, right now i'd throw ohio into tossup - kasich legitimately hasn't hit 45% against fitzgerald since the middle of last year and the undecideds in every poll are dem-leaning demographic groups. (ixnay what i said about SC, i completely forgot how close it was in 2010)
    I recall last year he was generally leading and had higher approval ratings than most GOP governors, but looking at some more recent polls you're probably right
    montana senate is almost certainly going to be closer than west virginia.
    I think Tennent is a much stronger candidate than Walsh, but both states are probably gone and I'm probably being generous having West Virgina as only Lean R
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    In other news:

    I suddenly have more hopes for the gubernatorial race in New Mexico for the Democratic candidate: Diane Denish:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...ef=mostpopular

    Honestly, Ms. Martinez, name calling?

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    that's weird, because i'm pretty sure the democratic candidate for new mexico governor's going to be gary king
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    In other news:

    I suddenly have more hopes for the gubernatorial race in New Mexico for the Democratic candidate: Diane Denish:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...ef=mostpopular

    Honestly, Ms. Martinez, name calling?
    I am SHOCKED that backroom meetings aren't G-rated. Martinez is obviously toast!

    EDIT: Looks like a familiar name is running for governor of Delaware in 2016
    Last edited by WizardTrubbish; 17th April 2014 at 5:56 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Madden View Post
    that's weird, because i'm pretty sure the democratic candidate for new mexico governor's going to be gary king
    This was made back in 2010 has King won the primary?

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    Harper polls a few competitive races for the NRSC

    http://e.nrsc.org/t/j-64E37D64E7CD9F76

    Arkansas: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 39, GOP Rep. Tom Cotton 39, not sure 22. http://goo.gl/IOm2wD
    Colorado: Democratic Sen. Mark Udall 45, GOP Rep. Cory Gardner 43, not sure 12. Udall approval rating: 38 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove. http://goo.gl/nbq7xe
    Louisiana: In Nov. 4 primary: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 40, GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy 35, Republican Rob Maness 4, Republican Paul Hollis 3, not sure 18 percent. In hypothetical runoff: Landrieu 43, Cassidy 47, not sure 10. Landrieu approval rating: 39 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove. http://goo.gl/33jFGj
    Michigan: Republican former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land 43, Democratic Rep. Gary Peters 40, not sure 18. Peters favorability: 25 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable. http://goo.gl/dGq7I1
    Montana: Democratic Sen. John Walsh 35, Republican Rep. Steve Daines 42, not sure 23. Democratic former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger 33, Daines 44, not sure 23. http://goo.gl/8c6vv9
    Most of these look pretty reasonable, although Cassidy and Land definitely aren't doing that well, and I highly doubt Pryor is in a better position than Landrieu
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    This was made back in 2010 has King won the primary?
    he's the frontrunner by a wide margin and denish isn't even running this year
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    Looks like CNN has taken notice to Mary Landreu's restaging of a Senate hearing for her political ad and how the reinactment is blowing up in her face as it is causing people to focus on how false the footage is.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-T...Up-In-Her-Face

    Seeing how Landreu probably won't win in November I guess any chance to get her ad out is good for her even if it is staged and phoney

    In other news Elizabeth Warren keeps pushing her Native American identity in her book, the problems and lies with that story could come into play in 2016 if she decides to run
    Last edited by BigLutz; 17th April 2014 at 8:47 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    In other news Elizabeth Warren keeps pushing her Native American identity in her book, the problems and lies with that story could come into play in 2016 if she decides to run
    She's said several times she doesn't plan on running
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