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Thread: U.S. 2014/2016 Election Thread: The Man in the High Chair

  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourFavoriteUser View Post
    She's said several times she doesn't plan on running
    I wouldn't be surprised if she changes her mind if Hillary does not run, I mean who else is really a challenge in the field? Biden?

    Edit: Chelsea just announced she was having a baby could Hillary possibly not run so she could spend the early formative years with her grandchild instead of missing almost everything while on the campaign trail/west wing?
    Last edited by BigLutz; 17th April 2014 at 9:50 PM.

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    Ah, election season. Whatever some of you guys did in my thread late last November threw off my concentration, but for my part, I’m already under the assumption that all bets are off. Certain world leaders’ plans have started to unfold, and I’ve included some key tidbits of info for my main associates nowadays, perhaps warranting some new attention out of my humble corner of the world.:

    Public Policy Polling: Ted Cruz most popular in Texas
    Politico: Ted Cruz faces 2016 skeptics in South Carolina

    As the population shifts filter into this country, Ted Cruz looks to be one of the most recognized names, at least in my home state.:

    • 47% approval vs. 35% disapproval in general
    • 25% of Republican primary voters favoring him for President vs. 14% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Governor Rick Perry and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, 5% for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and 4% for Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Florida Senator Marco Rubio
    • 23% in favor of a Rick Perry run in 2016 vs. 66% believing he should sit 2016 out
    • 50% support for something known as the Paycheck Fairness Act, meaning equal pay for equal work between men and women, vs. 30% opposition
    • 34-35% of Republicans in total bolstering Paycheck Fairness Act support

    If numbers and rallies reflect mood, then South Carolina’s activists might need more than a few questions as President Barack Obama’s administration continues lurching everywhere. Certain establishment figures among that state’s Republicans stress that they’re not completely certain about the good senator’s coalition-building capabilities just yet, while Cruz himself wants to emphasize his general stance from illegal immigration to ObamaCare. Other visits have popped up, from Iowa to Florida, but certain political junkies might have their eyes turned beyond the current 2016 presidential lineup.:

    Indianapolis Star: Gov. Mike Pence for President in 2016?
    Houston Chronicle: Julian Castro, Dan Patrick slug it out over immigration

    Dissatisfaction could be plain if the aforementioned names exhaust each other in the coming months, and for Governor Mike Pence’s part, he doesn’t want to set up a run just yet, either. The Heritage Foundation has noted his past appearances, and an advisor recently departed to take up political consultation… with the Governor of Indiana as a likely client. One might get the idea that Pence’s deliberately keeping himself out of the running in order to let more high-profile names drift toward him in case the others run out of energy, time, or both, but also surprise people across this country, and on the other hand, he could make others aware enough to keep him in mind as a vice-presidential candidate alongside the eventual presidential nominee, thereby pushing the course of the Republican Party that much closer to cohesion by 2016. My home state could also cheer any solutions proposed by the candidates to become Lieutenant Governor, and I would admire the approach taken by Dan Patrick: broadening the debate, “which was slated as exclusively over immigration”, to incorporate abortion and ObamaCare in an overarching agenda of sorts, so that if nothing else, activists and experts nationwide might have an idea or two for maintaining this course of improvement. To be fair, the Univision debate didn’t entail runs for office, but I would note the exchange of ideas to be taken up by other candidates down the road, but if events inside this country can keep us steady, then events outside this country look to take a far eerier turn.:

    Daily Beast: Eli Lake: Sorry, Snowden: Putin Lied to You About His Surveillance State—and Made You a Pawn of It
    USA Today: Jews ordered to register in east Ukraine
    Washington Post: Diplomats reach deal on defusing Ukraine crisis

    These last three headlines popped up in the last few hours, and the Twitter reactions in the case of the second were all too instantaneous, and justifiably so, I might think. I caught news about the supposed broadcast earlier this morning, and the setup against the President of the United States looks to be as deliberate as we might expect. The Federal Security Service and the Foreign Intelligence Service haven’t wasted too much time sniping and provoking their way through Ukraine’s easternmost regions, and the International Eurasian Movement was all too happy to piggyback on their – and, by extension, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s – networks, as it might have been this entire time. Whereas we have court records and authorization, the Russians apparently don’t, and incredibly, even various journalists were happy to reward whatever campaigns have been up and running, via Pulitzers. If that wasn’t enough, some Jewish communities might now be in the crosshairs of any spies manufacturing the turbulence in that corner of the world. Denis Pushilin, purported to be the one in charge of whatever regime has been set up in Donetsk, signed his name on the leaflets in question, which were handed to Jews leaving synagogues after Passover commemorations, all under threat of either revoked citizenship, deportation, or asset confiscation. It was up to Secretary of State John Kerry to call this incident “grotesque”, and the references to 1939 could speak for themselves, which can’t help the most recent agreement to disarm the aforementioned groups much. The idea is to withdraw those groups from the streets, squares, and public places they occupied and grant amnesty to anyone other than individuals “found guilty of capital crimes”, but I’m not holding my breath. These Eurasianists, championed by one Alexander Dugin, want that project of theirs to extend from at least Berlin all the way eastward to Vladivostok, something with even more territory than the old Soviet Union, a second terror-sponsoring cult using the network(s) built by the first one to take control of Russia. If Ted Cruz and other high-profile Republicans already spoke in favor of escalated sanctions against Russia’s oligarchy, then the Eurasianists certainly add a completely new angle to that country’s course since that fateful Christmas back in 1991, setting up an even bigger mess in due time, I think.
    Babylon 5, Codename: Kids Next Door, 24, and now, My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic. I am many things at once, and many people might have different opinions about little, old me. If freedom is my main idea, then harmony, individuality, and modernization are the three attributes I now sense and track. Those three attributes and that idea combined to make the United States of America a great global superpower and Pearlshipping and Wishfulshipping great Pokémon couples, and now, they've combined to make those four shows truly great television programs to me. I will enjoy enthusiastically supporting the Equestrian ponies' adventures for peace, for humankind, for the future.

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    If Hillary didn't run and Warren did, I'd expect her to become the front runner, yes. She polls well, she represents the same milestone as Hillary, and would probably be the most Obama-esque candidate ( blue state senator elected four years before the election, loved by the base, would be a historical milestone). If both decline, I'd expect the nomination to go to one of the following, in no particular order:

    Vice president Joe Biden
    New York governor Andrew Cuomo
    New York senator Kirsten Gillibrand
    Virginia senator Mark Warner
    Maryland governor Martin O'Malley
    Missouri governor Jay Nixon
    Former Montana governor Brian Schweitzer
    Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar
    Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourFavoriteUser View Post
    ( blue state senator elected four years before the election, loved by the base, would be a historical milestone)
    Yep, let's vote for Elizabeth Warren on that basis, because she's so similar to the guy sitting in the White House. What an amazing job Obama's done. In my opinion, if Hillary doesn't win, you're going to see voter turnout and enthusiasm for this election plummet for the Democratic Party.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KantoPkmnMaster View Post
    Yep, let's vote for Elizabeth Warren on that basis, because she's so similar to the guy sitting in the White House. What an amazing job Obama's done. In my opinion, if Hillary doesn't win, you're going to see voter turnout and enthusiasm for this election plummet for the Democratic Party.
    Warren certainly does have a lot in common with Senator Obama. Not that much with President Obama though.

    And Warren is probably the only Democrat besides Hillary that can generate any sort of enthusiasm at all. She's certainly loved by the base, and rates as the most popular politician in America
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourFavoriteUser View Post
    Warren certainly does have a lot in common with Senator Obama. Not that much with President Obama though.

    And Warren is probably the only Democrat besides Hillary that can generate any sort of enthusiasm at all. She's certainly loved by the base, and rates as the most popular politician in America
    Yeah, but touching on the point of my last post, popularity / historical milestones don't always equate to success. I won't contest your statement, because it's probably correct. I'm just really indifferent at the present time when it comes to U.S. politics. I've been a member of the Republican party since i became eligible to vote and over the years i've started to grow sick of how my party has conducted it's affairs over the past few years. Sort of starting to classify myself as more of a moderate with a strong fiscally conservative mindset. In all honesty, i think if Hillary Clinton runs, we're going to see a result reminiscent of the 08 election, with Hillary destroying the Republican challenger. The pool of challengers from the Republican side make me cringe, and in all honesty don't present a big challenge.

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    I would actual say Warren is further to the left than Senator Obama I mean she tried to take some credit for Occupy Wallstreet if my memory is correct.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    I would actual say Warren is further to the left than Senator Obama
    Definitely.
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    Just throwing this out as we are talking about Hillary: How much of a drag would President Obama be on her? She obviously is polling well, but she is also linked to his administration and him in particular. Would low poll numbers hurt Hillary's chances? Or is she too far removed from the Obama White House for that to be a factor?

    Personally I am not sure, its hard for a member of any party to run and win after two terms holding the White House, nearly harder when that person is linked to the administration in a somewhat visible/somewhat invisible manner. If we are going to use 2008 as a analogy as KantoPkmnMaster brought up, then Hillary would be McCain, and Obama would be Bush, with the Republicans playing the role of attacking the previous 8 years.
    Last edited by BigLutz; 18th April 2014 at 1:03 AM.

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    The President is dragging her down?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5167080.html

    Seems he's about to gain a boost in popularity now that the ACA is actually a success. What they called a "train wreck" is actually a train ahead of schedule.

    By the way:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

    Seems the President's approval rating is actually pretty good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    The President is dragging her down?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5167080.html

    Seems he's about to gain a boost in popularity now that the ACA is actually a success. What they called a "train wreck" is actually a train ahead of schedule.

    By the way:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

    Seems the President's approval rating is actually pretty good.
    If -7 is a good approval rating, I'd hate to see a bad one
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    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...oval-1044.html A more accurate approval rating of Obama.

    PPACA a success? Way way too early to tell. Way too many questions linger about whether Obamacare will be remembered as successful.
    1. What % of the people that signed up for Obamacare were previously uninsured?
    2. Did the Obamacare enrollment numbers by state meet the expectations of the DHHS?
    3. How many of the enrolled are young people, the primary target the plan needs to survive?
    4. How many of the enrolled will continue to stay enrolled in the future?
    5. Are the numbers accurate?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    The President is dragging her down?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5167080.html
    The latest poll I saw shows Hillary at the lowest level of popularity since 2008.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-brand-surges/

    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    Seems he's about to gain a boost in popularity now that the ACA is actually a success. What they called a "train wreck" is actually a train ahead of schedule.
    And you honestly think that will last in the higher premiums of 2015? The employer mandate of 2016?

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    2016, The year the Sith will rule the Galaxy....err...United States of America. http://i.imgur.com/xvTn4y5.png?1?6371

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    Not another Star Wars analogy.

    Someone made that in 2012, claiming Romney's advertising campaign would be "the Death Star", clearly forgetting how the movie ended.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    Not another Star Wars analogy.

    Someone made that in 2012, claiming Romney's advertising campaign would be "the Death Star", clearly forgetting how the movie ended.
    Good. Release your anger. It makes you stronger.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KantoPkmnMaster View Post
    Good. Release your anger. It makes you stronger.
    I sense much fear in you.

  18. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maedar View Post
    I sense much fear in you.
    You'd be fearful too if your party's top candidates at the present time were Rand Paul, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz (who can't even run for President)
    Last edited by KantoPkmnMaster; 18th April 2014 at 5:05 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    The latest poll I saw shows Hillary at the lowest level of popularity since 2008.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-brand-surges/
    and even with that she's still blowing out every GOP prospect by an average of 8%.

    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    And you honestly think that will last in the higher premiums of 2015? The employer mandate of 2016?
    i'm so glad you can see into the actuarial future. tell me how high my medicare premiums are going to be in the 2030s.

    Quote Originally Posted by KantoPkmnMaster View Post
    PPACA a success? Way way too early to tell. Way too many questions linger about whether Obamacare will be remembered as successful.
    1. What % of the people that signed up for Obamacare were previously uninsured?
    2. Did the Obamacare enrollment numbers by state meet the expectations of the DHHS?
    3. How many of the enrolled are young people, the primary target the plan needs to survive?
    4. How many of the enrolled will continue to stay enrolled in the future?
    5. Are the numbers accurate?
    1: uncertain. gallup's measurement of uninsurance fell from 18% (Q3 2013) to 12.9% (this month), and that measurement covers all adults, so extrapolating their survey gives us about 12 million people who didn't have insurance in april 2013 who now have it.

    but i don't think i need to tell you about the danger of extrapolation from a single data source.

    2: considering they exceeded original enrollment projections for the entire country 2 weeks before the open enrollment period ended, it's pretty safe to assume individual state projections were met (for the most part).

    3: 28%.

    4: if this is like the "who has paid???" talking point i've seen bandied about: close to 95%.

    5: is there any indication that they aren't?
    Last edited by John Madden; 18th April 2014 at 5:15 AM.
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    This thread is a little premature, don't you think?

    As for the subject matter, I think(against my wishes)that the US will neither elect someone as bowdlerized as Hilary Clinton or John Kerry, nor a Tea Party person like Rand Paul or Chris Christie. It'll be a middle-of-the-road candidate, someone with the mentality of John McCain.(but not him, he's too old)
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    Politico: President Obama, Eric Cantor talk immigration – sort of
    Miami Herald: Sen. Marco Rubio, Sen. Bill Nelson try to keep U.S. attention on Venezuelan political unrest
    Daily Caller: Neil Munro: Obama faces cold audience in Pennsylvania

    To think that at least some of this mess in American foreign and domestic policy originated more than a few decades ago. Speaking of immigration, illegal or legal, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s mood couldn’t have been helped much according to the current mood, so to speak, and this assumes that immigrants from other traditional societies remain fairly silent over the next few months. I suppose any remaining activists could safely watch these remnants stall and sputter, reflective of the entanglements from the maelstrom unleashed by President Barack Obama and his advisors. For whatever it’s worth, I might think that any population slowdowns would ultimately make such an initiative meaningless, but refugee flows could turn immigration into an issue of short bursts rather than constant arrivals. I’ll leave it to Senators Marco Rubio and Bill Nelson to explore another recent facet of this burgeoning fiasco, backed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The tidbits of imagery that I’ve caught might have been enough in my case, and the references to visa withdrawals and similar sanctions echo the turmoil over Russia, maybe not coincidentally. Rubio and Nelson favor granting asylum-seekers specialized designations for immigration officials’ purposes, which one might not mind too much. I’m quite certain that various labor unions will need their own contingency plans as refugees flow worldwide from whatever regions they’ve been attempting to escape, swamping the Democrats’ immigration agenda altogether, offering a crack in their coalition. As for the President himself, well, the above anecdote might be one among others in any efforts to estimate the general mood after the past five years, apparently. Obama referred to a “road trip” of sorts across Pennsylvania, but the sequencing might’ve left something to be desired. The rest of Pennsylvania might not have much left as the various possibilities involving, say, shale oil and gas widen throughout North America and this world, as I now recall, whether economic… or geopolitical.:

    Jamestown Foundation: Cavid Veliyev: Azerbaijan’s Approach to the Crimean Crisis
    Jamestown Foundation: Pavel Felgenhauer: Putin Hovering on the Brink of a Massive Invasion of Ukraine
    Time: Simon Shuster: Ukraine’s ‘Jew Register’ Either a Hoax or a Crude Extortion Scheme
    Fox News Channel: Raising Specter of Genocide, US Ambassador Power Slams ‘Industrial-Style Slaughter’ in Syria

    If I thought and opined the same way that Russian President Vladimir Putin did, then I’d be following a similar track of choices to his, which could say a few things about his mission as he sees it. As nervousness grows along Russia’s borders, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev voiced solidarity with Kiev, a stance echoed at the United Nations, which cited the importance of territorial integrity and global recognition of borders, a stance that Azerbaijan employed in refusing to recognize Kosovo’s independence, back during Bill Clinton’s days in the Oval Office, if I’m not mistaken. Its proximity to Iran and Turkey can’t help tensions there, and as the Eurasianists’ territorial threat twists and turns around the area, those networks already in place look to be accelerating beyond even their control. For Putin’s part, he referred to the area extending from eastern Ukraine to the border with Moldova as “New Russia”, and he and his advisors are echoing calls for the ability to essentially veto Kiev and official recognition of the annexation of Crimea. Call it a project for ethnic exclusivity in Russia’s favor, even if it turns out that certain groups sort to extort or even scare those Jewish communities as much as they could. All this hasn’t even mentioned the national battlefield once known as Syria yet, but perhaps we’ll be able to add Russia itself soon enough, depending on the mobilizations from its most classical historical enemies. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power was following officials who presented photographs depicting “corpses with bones protruding and eyes gouged out”. Between the machinations from the Putinists and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and the calls from Al-Qaeda and other similar groups, the region could fall beyond recovery, if it hasn’t already. Jen Psaki of the State Department didn’t directly confirm reports of anti-tank missiles for the jihad groups there, but the geopolitical grudge match now taking shape continues. I was among those political junkies who believed that Russia would bide its time during the societal self-destructions worldwide, but perhaps Viktor Yanukovych’s downfall forced its hand. The Sharia supremacists and the Chinese Communists alike could probably salivate at whatever chances they see to dismember Russia in the process. The candidates for 2014 and 2016 will be certain to have a plethora of crises facing them and the rest of the Anglosphere, no matter who ends up winning on either side.
    Last edited by ccangelopearl1362; 18th April 2014 at 3:01 PM.
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    RINO Alert! Chris Christie is telling the GOP to reform drug sentencing and be pro-life "After getting out of the womb".

    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/christie-...t-of-the-womb/

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    Quote Originally Posted by John Madden View Post

    i'm so glad you can see into the actuarial future. tell me how high my medicare premiums are going to be in the 2030s.
    Hey if the employer mandate is going to do such great things for Obama and this country why does he keep pushing it back?

    And I would like to expand on the young enrolled number, how many of those are off their parents insurance and not part of the pre existing condition class? In other words how many young invincibles are paying for their own insurance?

    Quote Originally Posted by KantoPkmnMaster View Post
    You'd be fearful too if your party's top candidates at the present time are Rand Paul, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz (who can't even run for President)
    Let's not go Birther, Ted Cruz is eligible to run
    Last edited by BigLutz; 18th April 2014 at 2:12 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    Let's not go Birther, Ted Cruz is eligible to run
    I know that, Lutz, but I didn't hear you or any other Republican complaining about Orly Taitz when she was on her crusade to prove otherwise about Mr. Obama. Or discredit any of the other dumb conspiracy theories about him, like the one about him being a Muslim. (I mean, they assumed he was a pro gay marriage Muslim who doesn't observe any Ramadan traditions... Right, sure.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    Hey if the employer mandate is going to do such great things for Obama and this country why does he keep pushing it back?
    you've convinced me! a delay in one part of the law means it is actuarial fact that premiums are going to see an unprecedented jump in 2015.

    Quote Originally Posted by BigLutz View Post
    And I would like to expand on the young enrolled number, how many of those are off their parents insurance and not part of the pre existing condition class? In other words how many young invincibles are paying for their own insurance?
    that's 28% of QHPs, meaning it's already excluding under-26s.
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